gAInfully employed

Well this was a depressing read.

Daniel Miessler takes us through a range of anecdotal and data-driven evidence that a bad thing, or a combination of bad things, could be about to happen that could lead to a spontaneous recession. This is mainly based on the incredible numbers around tech layoffs over the past four years driven by enterprise level companies and big tech betting big on AI across a range of professional roles. But there’s also some interesting insights into mounting credit card debt and the rise of living costs, although as someone who almost never eats out I do wonder how much of that is cultural.

Oddly, this coincided with me reading that CEOs are not talking about recession so much, and Polymarket users now thinking that a recession (at least in the USA) is less likely (12% down from 66% in May).

I suppose the two positions aren’t necessary in conflict. If business have bet on AI, and their bets are coming good, then it stands to reason that those businesses (and the fewer employees left in them) are thriving. Lower overheads mean wider profit margins. Here in the UK, where the government has sought to raise taxes by targetting employer’s national insurance contributions, businesses have every incentive they need to not hire someone unless absolutely necessary.

And yet, lest we feel the doom and gloom, I see TLDR are hiring a Head of Talent Acquisition with a compensation range of between $125,000 - $200,000. A figure that boggles my mind for that sort of role.

This brings me back to Daniel’s article, and one of his key points: most workers just check in and check out, and don’t put in that much effort. This is something I see absolutely every single day. It’s in my business, it’s in the builders I see taking a break every time they feel a raindrop, it’s in the apathetic workeres in our retail and grocery stores who can’t be bothered to stop shoplifters or even point you in the direction of your desired products. To my mind, these are the people who have the most to fear from AI and any impending employment crisis. Those who for one reason or another, just can’t be bothered anyway.